How high can gold go? Most believe this depends on the effect of inflation. However, we are not likely to see this for at least another 2-3 years. There is no denying that the super low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England has dramatically increased the money supply. When you consider the extended period for which these low interest rates have been held, inflation seems a certainty. These central banks need to put the brakes on quick.
Also, central banks worldwide are becoming net buyers of gold as opposed to net sellers. This has put upward pressure on the gold price. Look, globally $12 trillion in stimulus has been created. Most of this is yet to be spent. When it is we are likely to see inflation in most areas. The case for $5,000 gold is looked at in detail in this excellent article on commodityonline.com.
It seems that the fundamentals indicate a bright future for gold.
Goldman Sachs are gold bulls. They predict the price of gold may go to $1,350 an ounce within the next year. They also believe that interest rates will not be raised until 2012. Given how easy it is for private investors to buy physical gold it seems wise to act on Goldman Sachs’ prediction.
It’s common sense to put a portion of your savings into gold at the moment. Especially if Goldman Sachs’ prediction of no interest rate increases until 2012 comes true. This is a fabulous opportunity for you to protect the purchasing power of your savings. The relationship between low interest rates and money supply have serious implications down the line. Even if you are not as bullish as some of the more optimistic gold bulls out there, you should take Goldman Sachs’ prediction seriously. Remember, you can easily buy gold online and save a lot of money on commissions.
Some of the best analysts with solid track records are predicting $5,000 gold. This is based on the amount of new money created in the last couple of years in order to stimulate economic activity and prevent the banks from going under. The will have an effect on inflation, to what extent will determine where gold will go. This interview is worth checking out before you decide to buy gold.
Interesting video that I found on YouTube about why physical silver and gold is a better hedge against hyperinflation than ETFs. Again the choice on how to invest in gold is totally up to you. You know what’s best for you when you buy gold. However, it’s always good hear a broad range of opinion about buying gold before you invest.
The Chinese government has increased the amount of deposits banks must hold on money lent out. This is expected to reduce the amount on money flowing into commodities, and therefore, some predict that the Gold price will fall back.
This may create an opportunity to buy in the dip. However, the purchasing power of China’s currency will improve in the long term as a result of this rule on the fractional reserve system Chinese banks implement. If your currency is the Dollar, Euro or GB Pound this new regulation won’t have a significant impact commodity prices in the long term.
The IMF predicts that growth in China and India along with other developing countries will be about 7.3 percent this year. This shows an economic re-balancing between the west and the east. Most of the global growth will occur in Asian countries over the next 10 years. Deutche Bank’s Chief Economist for China Ma Jun stated that in the next 10 years the GDP of China could overtake that of the United States.
This increased wealth in the East, and the need for major infrastructural projects in that region, indicate an increased demand for commodities. According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch executive Diego Parrilla commodities as an asset class look promising. Oil, platinum, copper and gold will extend their rally this year as growth in emerging markets including China and investment demand fuel gains.
The relationship between Gold and the Dollar has quite a lot to do with the believe that Gold may rise. This is because of the money that has been injected into the system as part of various stimulus packages throughout the world. This points to inflation as people’s savings have been diluted by all this new money. Central banks in Asia are buying Gold. Previously Central Banks globally were net sellers of Gold. This change in central banking policy emphasis Gold’s strength right now.
An interesting article on the outlook for gold prices in the next few years that was published by gold-eagle.com counters the arguments made by the gold bears out there.
Here is a quick summary of the pro-gold argument:
Central Banks are now buying gold
Easy to find gold has already been mined
The Population has increased 53% since the last “gold rush” in 1980
The majority of the population increase has ocurred in India and China and these people love to own gold
Mining costs are increasing
Red tape and bureaucracy slow down the opening of new mines
Greenlight hedge fund went from owning GLD (a gold ETF) to owning physical gold
Currency concerns point to gold good investment
Politicians are making a lot of mistakes
Even if you are not as sure about the future of gold. I believe that is a solid prudent investment that everyone should make. Even as a hedge that gives you peace of mind. Buying gold can be justified on several levels.
